MODELING OF BURNT FOREST AREAS IN BULGARIA BY MODIFIED METHOD OF THE TIME SERIES AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Mitko M. Petrov, Tatiana S. Ilkova
Pages: 14-21 Published: 2 Jun 2014
Views: 2,441 Downloads: 754
Abstract: In this study a models of burnt forest areas and numbers of fires in Bulgaria has been developed with a modified method of the time series analysis (TSA). The method of regression analysis also has been used for modeling of burnt forest area in dependence from the following climatic indexes: rainfall, maximum twenty-four-hour period rainfall, maximum height of the snow-cover, and overall year temperature. The basic tendencies in the evolution of the burnt forest areas for the period from years 1988 to 2010 on all investigated indexes has done.
Keywords: modelling, times series analysis method, regression analysis, burnt forest areas